Puka Nacua
25.00 pts
Eleven catches on twelve targets, 80 yards, one touchdown. He is the only player on this roster you never have to think about.
Week 8 closed last night and it closed badly: 100.06 to 112.80 against WhoottieBoys. You had the points to win it sitting on your bench.
LordHaveMRSA
100.06
WhoottieBoys
112.80
FINAL - Week 8. Record now 3-5, ninth of twelve.
Tre Tucker
0.00 pts
One target. No catches. No yards. In a game the Raiders won 38-33. A zero from a healthy starter is the worst thing that can happen to you, and it happened.
DeMario Douglas
16.60 pts
Three targets, three catches, 76 yards and a touchdown - from your bench. Start him over Tucker and you win 116.66 to 112.80.
1. The scoreboard
Week 8 is final. Monday night's Chicago Bears win at Seattle, 34-17, was the last game on the board and neither roster had a piece of it, so the 100.06-112.80 result had been locked since Sunday night. That drops you to 3-5 and ninth of twelve.
Your consolation, such as it is: you have scored 819.22 points, more than four teams above you in the standings. Your problem is in plain sight in the league's other column - your potential points (what you would have scored with a perfect lineup every week) sit at 958.22. That is 139 points left on the bench across eight weeks, and it is the entire difference between 3-5 and a playoff seed.
2. Your starters, result versus expectation
Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) - 25.00 points, projected 22.04
Eleven receptions on twelve targets for 80 yards and a touchdown in the Rams' 24-9 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. No big plays, just a player who gets the ball every time the offense needs a completion. Beat his number. Nothing to discuss.
Drake Maye (New England Patriots) - 22.46 points, projected 21.06
Sixteen of twenty for 199 yards, two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in a 24-19 win at Miami. A 141.5 passer rating. He has turned into the quiet reason your floor is not worse than it is.
Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) - 20.20 points, projected 18.54
Seven catches on eight targets, 72 yards, one touchdown in Arizona's 33-30 win at Dallas. Twenty points from a tight end is a positional edge most of this league does not have. Beat his number.
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - 16.60 points, projected 14.03
Four catches on seven targets for 82 yards and a touchdown in Buffalo's 36-10 beating of Baltimore, including a 49-yard catch. He also lost a fumble, and he left the game with a knee problem. Good day, uneasy ending - see the injury section.
Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) - 12.90 points, projected 20.02
Sixteen carries for 56 yards. That is 3.5 yards a carry, and the only thing that saved the day was the touchdown he fell into. One catch for three yards on his lone target. He missed his projection by 7.12 and he was not unlucky - he was just slow.
Samaje Perine (Cincinnati Bengals) - 2.90 points, projected 9.10
Four carries for ten yards and one catch for nine. Cincinnati scored 43 points against Tennessee and Perine touched the ball five times. He is the second running back on his own depth chart and he is being used like the fourth. There is no reading of this that makes him a startable running back in a twelve-team league.
Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders) - 0.00 points, projected 11.16
He was active. He played. He was thrown at once and did not catch it. Las Vegas won 38-33 at the New York Jets - the Raiders put up 38 points and their number-one receiver by depth chart finished with nothing. Missing a projection by 11.16 is a bad week; a healthy starting wide receiver posting a goose egg in a 38-point game is a different category of bad.
Your seven starters were projected for 115.95. They delivered 100.06. You lost by 12.74.
3. The bench that beat your lineup
DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots) 16.60 beat Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders) 0.00
This is the game. Douglas caught all three of his targets for 76 yards, one of them a 48-yard play, and scored. He was projected for 9.13 - a point and a half behind Tucker's 11.16 - so nobody could have called it with certainty. But Douglas has now out-produced his projection in a role that is growing, and Tucker is averaging target counts that do not support a starting slot. Start Douglas and the week reads 116.66 to 112.80, a win.
Geno Smith (New York Jets) 19.00 did not beat Drake Maye (New England Patriots) 22.46
Smith threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, and still finished 3.46 behind Maye. You made the right quarterback call. Keep making it.
The rest of the bench was no help
Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) 4.30 on six targets at Denver. Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) 1.40 on three targets. Chris Godwin Jr. (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) 0.00 - one target, no catches, in a 16-0 shutout of Atlanta. Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) 0.00 on a bye and a hamstring. You did not have a good option at wide receiver except the one you did not use.
4. Injuries and what to do about them
Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) - questionable, hamstring
He tweaked it in the Giants' Week 7 overtime win over Houston and was working off to the side at Monday's practice coming out of the bye. The Giants are calling him day-to-day and he may be a game-time decision for Sunday's 1:00 PM ET game at Philadelphia. Devin Singletary is the next man up there, and Singletary is owned in this league. Skattebo projects 11.01 for Week 9 against 6.44 for Perine, so he is worth waiting on - but a game-time call on a 1:00 PM kickoff means you need a real second option by Saturday night, not a hope.
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - questionable, knee
He left Sunday's win with a knee problem and told reporters afterward he was fine, which usually means he plays. The complication is the schedule: Buffalo is at Minnesota on Monday night, November 9, 8:15 PM ET. If he is ruled out late you will have already burned the Sunday window with no way to replace him. Do not put him in your flex unless he is off the injury report by Saturday.
Zonovan Knight (Arizona Cardinals) and Dameon Pierce (Philadelphia Eagles) - cut them
Knight is out with a concussion and is third on Arizona's running back depth chart when healthy. Pierce is on injured reserve and fifth on Philadelphia's. Together they are two of your fifteen roster spots producing nothing and projected to produce nothing. These are the spots that pay for the two waiver adds below.
5. Waivers - you have $34 of FAAB left
| Player | Why | Bid |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Sampson (Cleveland Browns) - Running Back | 12.90 points in Week 8 on 39 snaps - and he did it on ONE carry and eight targets. He is being used as a receiver out of the backfield, which in full PPR is exactly the profile that fixes your second running back spot. At New Orleans on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. This is the add that matters. | $8 |
| Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos) - Wide Receiver | Fifty offensive snaps and 9.3 points in Week 8, projected 6.98 against Carolina in Week 9. Boring, but a boring 7 points is better than Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) at 6.71 or Samaje Perine (Cincinnati Bengals) at 6.44, and he is a body you can start without wincing. | $4 |
| Chimere Dike (Tennessee Titans) - Wide Receiver | 18.10 points on 63 snaps and six targets in Week 8 - the clearest emerging role on the free-agent board. Tennessee is on bye in Week 9, so this is a stash for Week 10 and beyond, which is also why he should be cheap. | $3 |
FAAB is the $100 season-long budget you bid with on waiver pickups. You have spent $66 and have $34 to get through nine more weeks, and your waiver priority is eleventh of twelve, so bidding is the only way you win a claim. The free-agent pool in this league is thin - it is a twelve-team league with fifteen-man rosters - so these are role bets, not stars.
6. The player you do not own who went off
Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans) - 26.26 points, and useless to you
The highest-scoring free agent in this league last week, and you should not touch him. You already carry Drake Maye (New England Patriots) and Geno Smith (New York Jets) at quarterback, and Tennessee is on bye in Week 9. The free agent who actually belongs on your roster is his teammate Chimere Dike, above. Honorable mention: Mike Gesicki (Cincinnati Bengals) put up 17.60 at tight end, which would be a gift to almost anyone in this league except you - Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) has that slot locked.
7. Week 9 - what is coming and what to start
| Slot | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye (New England Patriots) | Start. vs Green Bay, Sun 4:25 PM ET. Projected 20.74. |
| RB | Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) | Start. at Washington, Sun 1:00 PM ET. Projected 19.10 - and he needs to earn it. |
| RB | Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) | Start IF cleared. at Philadelphia, Sun 1:00 PM ET. Projected 11.01, questionable, possible game-time call. |
| WR | Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) | Start. at Washington, Sun 1:00 PM ET. Projected 23.24. |
| WR | Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) | Start. vs New York Jets, Sun 1:00 PM ET. Projected 10.60 - six targets last week beats Tucker's one. |
| TE | Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) | Start. at Seattle, Sun 4:25 PM ET. Projected 15.13. |
| FLEX | Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders) | Start by default. at San Francisco, Sun 4:25 PM ET. Projected 10.03. Replace him if the Sampson claim lands. |
| BENCH | DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) | Projected 12.66, the best bench number you have - but Monday night and a knee. Flex him only if he clears Saturday. |
| BENCH | Samaje Perine (Cincinnati Bengals) | Only if Skattebo is out and no claim lands. vs Atlanta, Sun 9:30 AM ET. Projected 6.44. |
| BENCH | Geno Smith (New York Jets) | Hold as quarterback insurance. at Kansas City, Sun 1:00 PM ET. |
| BENCH | DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots) | Projected only 6.51, but he just scored 16.60. Live option if a receiver is scratched. |
| BENCH | Chris Godwin Jr. (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | at Chicago, Sun 8:20 PM ET. One target last week. Cut candidate if you need a third spot. |
| BENCH | Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) | Projected 6.71. Third on Buffalo's depth chart behind a healthy DJ Moore. |
| DROP | Zonovan Knight (Arizona Cardinals) | Out, concussion. Drop. |
| DROP | Dameon Pierce (Philadelphia Eagles) | Injured reserve. Drop. |
Week 9 opens Thursday, November 5 at 8:15 PM ET with Jacksonville at Baltimore - no players of yours in it, so your first lock is Sunday at 9:30 AM ET, when Cincinnati plays Atlanta and Samaje Perine's week is decided before most of the slate kicks off. Byes: Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Nobody on your roster is affected.
Your opponent is honeybadgerr1, also 3-5 - but they have scored 865.60 points to your 819.22 and their potential points are 1002.74, the second-highest in the league. Same record, better roster. You will not win this one on a 100-point week.
The three decisions, spelled out
Second running back. Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) projects 11.01 and Samaje Perine (Cincinnati Bengals) projects 6.44, so if Skattebo is cleared it is not a decision at all. The trap is the timing: both play at 1:00 PM ET Sunday, and Perine's game actually starts earlier, at 9:30 AM ET. If Skattebo is still questionable Saturday night you cannot wait him out and then pivot to Perine, because Perine will already be playing. That is the argument for spending on Dylan Sampson (Cleveland Browns) - he plays at 1:00 PM ET too, and he gives you a real body rather than a coin flip.
The flex. DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) has the highest projection of your non-starters at 12.66, but Buffalo plays Monday night, November 9. A Monday-night flex with a knee problem is a position where a late scratch costs you the whole slot with nothing to replace it. Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders) at 10.03 on Sunday afternoon is 2.63 projected points worse and far less likely to be zero by accident - though he just proved he can get to zero on his own.
Second wide receiver. Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) at 10.60 against Tre Tucker at 10.03 is a projection tie. Break it on usage: Worthy saw six targets at Denver and caught three for 13 yards - bad, but involved. Tucker saw one target in a game his team scored 38 points in. Involvement is the thing that can turn into a good week; Tucker's role right now cannot.