Brian Robinson Jr.
11.0 pts
Ten carries, 50 yards, a touchdown - every point of it on your bench.
Thursday night came and went without touching your lineup. Brian Robinson Jr. (Atlanta Falcons) banked 11.0 points on your bench, your starters have not played a snap, and the scoreboard still reads 0.00 to 0.00. You are 0-2, the projections have you losing this one by about thirteen, and the entire week now hangs on two injury reports that land this afternoon.
LordHaveMRSA (0-2)
0.00
Free Jacobs (1-1)
0.00
Nothing decided. First kickoff Sunday, 1:00 PM ET.
Puka Nacua
Questionable
Hip and groin. Has not practiced in a week. Friday decides it.
Joshua Palmer
Free agent
Two touchdowns on five total targets, with both men ahead of him hurt.
1. Where the matchup stands
You are 0-2 and ninth of twelve in points scored (183.14). You are also fourth in points allowed (237.18), which is the polite way of saying you have been beaten by better rosters, not robbed. Your bench has cost you only 9.7 points across two weeks, so lineup mistakes are not the problem. The roster is.
Projections for this week put you at roughly 94.9 against Free Jacobs at roughly 107.6. That gap is almost entirely Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) and Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions), who are projected for 47.6 points between them. You do not have an answer to that on paper. You need two of your own starters to beat their number by a wide margin, and the two candidates are Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) and Cam Skattebo (New York Giants).
2. Thursday night, and what it did to you
Brian Robinson Jr. (Atlanta Falcons) - 11.00 points, on your bench
Ten carries for 50 yards and a one-yard touchdown in Atlanta's 35-14 win over the Green Bay Packers. He was projected for 4.4, so he beat his number by better than double. Before you feel sick about it: he was never a start. Your two running back slots belong to Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) and Cam Skattebo (New York Giants), and both are projected for more. This is a bench player having a good night, not a lineup error. He is locked now either way.
The game itself was a blowout you had no stake in
Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) ran 29 times for 194 yards and two scores. Drake London (Atlanta Falcons) caught nine balls for 194 yards on ten targets. Matthew Golden (Green Bay Packers) and Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers) each went for a touchdown and roughly 100 yards. All four are rostered in this league. Neither you nor Free Jacobs had a starter on the field, so the 0.00 to 0.00 scoreboard is real, not a reporting lag.
3. Injuries on your roster - the two that decide the week
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - shoulder, Questionable - STARTING at wide receiver
An AC joint sprain, which is a separated shoulder, picked up against the Detroit Lions in Week 2. He played 23 of Buffalo's 74 snaps that night and finished with zero catches on zero targets for minus 0.1 points. This week he was limited in one practice, said he "felt great," then was listed as a non-participant in the next. Reporting suggests he may need a game-day injection to the joint to play at all. He is projected for 11.7. Treat that number as fiction until the Friday report posts this afternoon.
Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) - hip and groin, Questionable - on your bench
He has not practiced in a week. Sean McVay has called it hip soreness and groin soreness in the same breath, and Ian Rapoport reported Thursday that Nacua is not making much progress. He gets one more look in Friday drills and then the Rams decide. He has played one game all season (12.4 points). If he is cleared he is your best receiver by a distance and an automatic start. If he is out, Davante Adams (Los Angeles Rams) becomes Matthew Stafford's primary target - and Adams is not yours.
Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) - ankle, Questionable - on your bench
Hurt in the same Thursday night game as DJ Moore. He left in the second quarter, came back, and caught all six of his targets for 63 yards. He did not practice Wednesday. Head coach Joe Brady's comment - that guys who miss practice this week may still play - reads as a Coleman comment. He is a depth question, not a lineup question, unless both he and DJ Moore are cleared and you want the cheaper of the two.
4. Your lineup, and the calls you still have
| Slot | Player | Kickoff and call |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye (New England Patriots) | Sun 1:00 PM ET at Jacksonville. Start him - you have no one else. Projected 18.4, but he has thrown one touchdown against four interceptions in two games for 21.8 total points. That is bottom-of-the-league quarterback play and it is quietly the biggest hole on this roster. |
| RB | Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) | Sun 8:20 PM ET at Denver. Start. 31.2 points in two weeks and a touchdown in each. He also put the ball on the ground Monday night, which is the one thing that can ruin a night like this. |
| RB | Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) | Sun 1:00 PM ET vs Tennessee. Start. 18 carries, then 12 carries plus four catches. The volume is real and Tennessee is the softest matchup on your card. |
| WR | Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) | Sun 1:00 PM ET at Miami. Start. 4.8 then 13.5 - the snap share climbed from 77 to 86 percent, which is the part that matters. |
| WR | DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) | Sun 1:00 PM ET vs the Los Angeles Chargers. CONDITIONAL. See below. |
| TE | Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) | Sun 4:05 PM ET at San Francisco. Start, obviously. 42.6 points in two games on 23 targets. He is the best thing you own and it is not close. |
| FLEX | Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Sun 4:05 PM ET vs Minnesota. Start. 8.3 and 8.8 is dull, but he is on 86 percent of the snaps and dull is worth something with this much chaos elsewhere. |
The one real decision: DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) at wide receiver, and it has to be made by 1:00 PM ET Sunday, because his game is in the early window. Inactive lists post 90 minutes before kickoff - 11:30 AM ET. Watch for the Friday practice report this afternoon first.
If DJ Moore is out or listed as questionable and you do not trust the injection: your replacement is Rashid Shaheed (Seattle Seahawks), at Washington in the same 1:00 PM window, projected 8.5. He is the only bench receiver whose game starts early enough to be a real substitute. Wan'Dale Robinson (Tennessee Titans) is projected 7.7 and caught one pass last week - he is a worse version of the same bet.
Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) is a trap here, not a solution. His game is Sunday night at 8:20 PM ET, seven hours after your other decisions lock. If you slot him in at wide receiver and he is ruled out, you take a zero with no way to recover. Only start Nacua if the Rams announce Friday or Saturday that he is playing. If the news is still 'questionable' on Sunday morning, leave him on the bench and take the 8.5 from Shaheed.
Everything else is set. Braelon Allen (New York Jets), Michael Mayer (Las Vegas Raiders) and Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) all project under 7.1 and none of them should see your lineup this week.
5. Waivers - you have $80 of your $100 left
| Player | Why | Bid |
|---|---|---|
| Joshua Palmer (Buffalo Bills) | Two touchdowns on five total targets across two weeks, 21.7 points, on a 31 and then 38 percent snap share. He is touchdown-dependent and the projection systems have him at 1.9 this week because they have not priced in the injuries. With DJ Moore (shoulder) and Keon Coleman (ankle) both questionable, he is the direct hedge on two players you already own. Buy the role, not the box score. | $8 |
| Kalif Raymond (Chicago Bears) | 13 catches on 14 targets, 61 percent of the snaps, 25.4 points and not one touchdown yet. That is usage, not luck, which makes him the most repeatable free agent on the board. His game is Monday night, so he is a poor substitute for a Sunday hole - add him for next week. | $6 |
| Kendrick Bourne (Arizona Cardinals) | 10 catches on 11 targets, 64 percent snap share, 18.6 points. Week 2 was a dud (3.1) and he shares a field with Trey McBride, which caps him. Third choice, cheap. | $4 |
| AJ Dillon (Carolina Panthers) - DO NOT BID | 467,000 people added him in the last 48 hours. He has 8 carries for 25 yards on a 10 percent and then 6 percent snap share and scored minus 0.3 points last week. This is the waiver wire being wrong in public. Let someone else spend on it. | $0 |
Nobody who is actually free had a monster Thursday. Every big line from Atlanta's win over Green Bay belongs to a rostered player. The one exception is Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons), who is unowned in this league and went 18 for 25 for 256 yards and a touchdown in a 35-14 rout - but he has already played this week, so adding him does nothing for Week 3. File him as a stash if Drake Maye (New England Patriots) throws another two interceptions Sunday.
Your actual need is a wide receiver you can trust while the Buffalo situation sorts itself out. In order:
6. Trending elsewhere, and what it means for you
The most-added players league-wide over the last 48 hours are Emanuel Wilson (Seattle Seahawks), Adonai Mitchell (New York Jets) and Tyler Shough (New Orleans Saints) - all three are already rostered here, so they are not available to you. Darren Waller (Carolina Panthers) is free and has 23.1 points in two weeks, which would be a headline if you did not own Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals). You do. Ignore it.
One thing to keep an eye on: your own Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) is the seventh-most-added player in the country right now despite the ankle. That is the market telling you Buffalo's receiver room is about to be reshuffled. You own two of the three names in it. If DJ Moore's shoulder keeps him limited for weeks rather than days, Joshua Palmer is the piece you want before someone else takes him.