Tre Tucker
26.70 pts
Five catches on seven targets, 97 yards, two touchdowns. On the bench. He alone would have won the week.
Week 6 ended in a 6.54-point loss with 46 points of wide receiver sitting on the bench, and Week 7 kicks off tonight with a bye-week player still in the starting lineup. There is about eleven hours to fix it.
LordHaveMRSA
0.00
Gridiron Guru 23
0.00
Week 7 has not kicked off. As the lineup sits right now, the projections have him losing 93.3 to 109.5 - and that is with a guaranteed zero in one starting receiver slot.
Cam Skattebo
0.00 pts
Healthy and benched. Six percent of the Giants' offensive plays. The new staff has soured on him.
Roschon Johnson
14.50 pts
Kyle Monangai is ruled out for tonight. The best free agent on the board, and he plays in eleven hours.
1. Where the matchup stands
| Slot | Player | Status for Week 7 |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye (New England Patriots) | Plays tonight, 8:15 PM ET at the Chicago Bears. Start. |
| RB | Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) | Sunday 4:25 PM ET at the Las Vegas Raiders. Start, with reservations. |
| RB | Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) | REPLACE. Benched by his own coaching staff. Projects 5.0. |
| WR | Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) | REPLACE. Buffalo is on a bye. Guaranteed 0.00. |
| WR | Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) | Sunday 4:25 PM ET at the Las Vegas Raiders. Start. |
| TE | Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) | Sunday 4:05 PM ET vs the Denver Broncos. Start. |
| FLEX | Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) | Sunday 8:20 PM ET at the Seattle Seahawks. Start. |
Nothing has been played yet in Week 7. The opponent is Gridiron Guru 23, 3-3, seventh in the league on points scored but third in potential points - meaning they, like most of this league, leave a lot on their own bench. Their lineup is Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) at quarterback, Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders) and Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals) at running back, A.J. Brown (New England Patriots), Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers) and DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles) at receiver, and Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) at tight end. That set projects to 109.5 points.
LordHaveMRSA projects to 93.3 as currently set, and that number is inflated by nothing - it is simply what happens when a starting receiver is on a bye week (his NFL team does not play at all this week) and the second running back projects for 5.0. Fix those two slots and the projection climbs to about 108.0. That is the difference between a 16-point underdog and a coin flip, and it costs nothing but a roster move and two clicks.
Season to date: 2-4, ninth of twelve. He has scored 597.02 points and allowed 661.16 - outscored by 64 points over six weeks, which is bad luck on top of bad lineups rather than instead of it. His potential points, the score he would have had with a perfect lineup every week, is 699.02. That is 102.00 points left on the bench, which sounds damning until you notice the league median is around 90. He is not uniquely careless. He is average at setting lineups and below average at scoring, and that combination is how a roster this talented ends up 2-4.
2. Week 6, revisited - a 6.54-point loss
Drake Maye (New England Patriots) - 23.80 points, projected 20.5
235 passing yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, plus four carries for 24 yards in a 26-19 win over the New York Jets. Quietly the most reliable player on this roster and the only starter who has beaten his projection in consecutive weeks.
Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) - 14.30 points, projected 10.6
Seven catches on seven targets for 73 yards in a 22-6 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. A perfect catch rate and a comfortable beat on his projection. No complaints - except that he occupied the flex slot that should have held Tre Tucker.
Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) - 15.90 points, projected 10.6
Four catches on six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown on a 58 percent snap share in a 33-30 win at the Las Vegas Raiders. A good day. It is also the last thing he will do for two weeks, because Buffalo is on a bye now.
Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) - 14.00 points, projected 22.7
Six catches on seven targets for 80 yards, no touchdown, in a 18-16 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Not a bad game - a 86 percent catch rate is fine - but 8.7 points under projection, and the 52 percent snap share is the number to watch. A nominal number-one receiver should not be off the field for half his team's plays.
Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) - 12.30 points, projected 16.4
Seven catches on nine targets for 53 yards, no touchdown, 70 percent snap share. Volume was there, yardage was not - 7.6 yards a catch is a checkdown day. Four points under projection is a shrug, not a problem. He stays in the lineup every week.
Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) - 9.70 points, projected 20.9
Ten carries for 50 yards and three catches on six targets for 17 yards. Thirteen touches is a season low. He played 42 snaps to Blake Corum's 16, but Corum got nine carries for 42 yards and a catch-and-run touchdown, and Williams was asked afterward about the offense's inconsistent energy and answered 'I couldn't tell you bro, probably because I'm not out there.' Eleven points under projection, and now a publicly annoyed back in a split backfield. He is still the start - there is no alternative - but the ceiling has moved down.
Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) - 0.00 points, projected 10.1
This is the one. Skattebo was not hurt. He played six percent of the Giants' offensive plays in a 34-27 loss to the New Orleans Saints - a healthy benching after an overtime fumble cost New York the Week 5 game. ESPN's reporting has the new coaching staff having soured on him entirely, with Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary absorbing the work and the Giants looking outside the building for a back. He may be a healthy scratch at the Houston Texans on Sunday. A zero from a starting running back is a loss on its own; a zero you could not have seen coming is bad luck; a zero from a player the beat reporters had already written off is a roster problem.
Final: LordHaveMRSA 90.00, vargy 96.54. Every number below is actual points against the pre-game consensus projection, which is the only fair way to judge a performance. Snap share means the percentage of his NFL team's offensive plays he was on the field for. This is a full PPR league, so every catch is worth a point on its own.
3. The bench that beat the starters
Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders) - 26.70 points on the bench
Five catches on seven targets for 97 yards and two touchdowns on only a 46 percent snap share in a 33-30 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He was projected for 9.1 and tripled it. Swap him into the flex slot in place of Xavier Worthy's 14.30 and the final is 102.40 to 96.54 - a win. That one move was the week.
DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots) - 19.60 points on the bench
Seven catches on eight targets for 86 yards and a touchdown, projected for 4.2. A terrific game that would not have saved the week: putting him in the flex instead of Xavier Worthy gets to 95.30, which still loses by 1.24. Worth knowing before the hindsight sets in.
The running back slot was not fixable
Cam Skattebo's zero sat in a slot that only accepts running backs, and the only other back on the roster was Najee Harris, who had been released by the New York Giants and scored 0.20. So the honest verdict is narrow: the mistake was not starting Skattebo, it was Xavier Worthy over Tre Tucker in the flex. One slot, 12.40 points, one game.
Two bench receivers outscored every starting receiver. Only one of them would actually have won the game, and it is worth being precise about which, because 'you left points on the bench' is a useless thing to be told without the arithmetic.
4. Injuries, byes and dead weight
Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) - on a bye, still in the starting lineup
Buffalo does not play in Week 7. Four NFL teams are off this week: the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and Washington Commanders. Coleman in a starting receiver slot is a guaranteed 0.00. This is the single most expensive thing on the roster right now and it takes ten seconds to fix.
Najee Harris - no NFL team at all
Released by the New York Giants. He is not injured, not a free agent waiting for a call-up in any useful sense - he has no team, so he cannot score. He has been a dead roster spot and he is the obvious drop to make room for a real running back.
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - out, shoulder
A sprained AC joint in the shoulder, and on a bye on top of it. Nothing to do this week. Hold him - a healthy DJ Moore is worth more than anything available on waivers - but he is not a Week 7 asset.
Drake Maye (New England Patriots) - right shoulder, practicing fully
Listed with a right shoulder injury on the Patriots' Wednesday report but a full participant Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, and not given a game status. He plays. The real worry is the protection: guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and offensive lineman Ben Brown (knee) are out and tackle Morgan Moses (foot) is questionable, which puts backup guards in front of him against a Chicago Bears defense that blitzes heavily. Start him - he is the only quarterback who matters on this roster - but a 21.6 projection against that front is optimistic.
Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) - healthy, benched, possibly a scratch
Not an injury, which makes it worse. Do not drop him outright yet - a benching under a new staff can reverse in a week and he was a useful back a month ago - but he does not belong in a starting slot at a 5.0 projection with a healthy-scratch risk at the Houston Texans.
5. Waiver targets before tonight's kickoff
| Player | Why | Bid |
|---|---|---|
| Roschon Johnson (Chicago Bears, RB) | Kyle Monangai is ruled out tonight with toe and thumb injuries, which clears Johnson into real work alongside D'Andre Swift. He had thirteen carries for 51 yards and two catches for 14.50 points in Week 6 and is the highest-projected free-agent running back on the board at 9.8. LordHaveMRSA's second running back slot currently projects 5.0. This is the move. | $0 if a free agent; otherwise $6 of the $39 |
| Ryan Flournoy (Dallas Cowboys, WR) | Seven catches on nine targets for 17.00 points in Week 6. The Cowboys play at the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, which makes him a late-week hedge if someone ahead of him gets ruled out Sunday morning. | $0 to $3 |
| Jahan Dotson (Atlanta Falcons, WR) | 17.70 points in Week 6 on only three catches from five targets - touchdown-dependent, so treat the number with suspicion. Atlanta hosts the San Francisco 49ers Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. | $0, speculative only |
| Michael Mayer (Las Vegas Raiders, TE) | Seven catches on nine targets for 16.50 points in Week 6 and heavily added across the industry. Not a need - Trey McBride is not losing the tight end slot - but worth knowing he is out there if McBride's checkdown games continue. | Pass |
FAAB is the $100 season-long budget this league uses to bid on waiver pickups. He has spent $61 and has $39 left for the remaining eleven weeks, which is tight but not desperate. Waivers in this league clear mid-week, so by Thursday morning anyone unclaimed is a straight free agent - first come, first served, no bid required. Check before bidding: if these names show as free agents, they cost nothing.
One timing note that matters: Roschon Johnson plays tonight at 8:15 PM US Eastern. Add him before kickoff or his Week 7 game is gone.
6. What to actually do before 8:15 PM US Eastern
One: drop Najee Harris, who has no NFL team, and add Roschon Johnson (Chicago Bears). Do it before tonight's kickoff so his Thursday game counts.
Two: start Roschon Johnson at the second running back slot in place of Cam Skattebo (New York Giants). 9.8 projected against 5.0, and no healthy-scratch risk.
Three: pull Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) out of the starting lineup - he is on a bye - and start Chris Godwin Jr. (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) in his place. Godwin projects 9.7 at the Carolina Panthers Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders) at 9.0 and DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots) at 8.5 are within a point of him, so this is close to a coin flip between three players; Godwin gets the nod on projection and on target volume, and Tucker's two-touchdown Week 6 was a 46 percent snap share he is unlikely to repeat.
Four: leave Drake Maye (New England Patriots), Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams), Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams), Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) and Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) alone. Those five are the roster. Nothing on the bench or on waivers beats them.
Done properly, the lineup goes from 93.3 projected to roughly 108.0 against an opponent projected at 109.5. One roster move and two lineup swaps turn a likely loss into a real game. One more loss puts him three games out of a six-team playoff field with the trade deadline in week 13 - this is the week the season stops being theoretical.
Week 7 bye weeks, kickoff times and the rest of the schedule
On a bye this week: Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders.
Thursday, October 22: New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, 8:15 PM ET. Chicago favored by 3, total 50.5.
Sunday, October 25: Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints 9:30 AM ET; San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants at Houston Texans all 1:00 PM ET; Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals 4:05 PM ET; Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders 4:25 PM ET; Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks 8:20 PM ET.
Monday, October 26: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 PM ET.
League context: 12 teams, full PPR, four points per passing touchdown, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX plus seven bench. Six teams make the playoffs starting week 15; the trade deadline is week 13. FAAB remaining: $39 of $100.