DJ Moore
Questionable
Shoulder (AC joint sprain). Practiced limited on Friday. Projected 13.3 points - the best receiver on this roster today if he is cleared.
No football was played Friday or Saturday, so nothing has changed on the field since yesterday - but everything is about to. Marco trails 0 to 21 with every one of his seven starters still to play, and there is one lineup move on the table that is worth about five projected points.
LordHaveMRSA
0.00
vargy
21.00
Seven starters still to play. First kickoff for this roster is 1:00 PM US Eastern.
Cooper Kupp
10.00 pts
Scored them Thursday night. On the bench. Locked, final, and gone. That is the cost of starting Keon Coleman.
Keon Coleman
9.9 per game
Third on Buffalo's receiver depth chart and projected 8.09 - the lowest of any LordHaveMRSA starter today.
1. Where the matchup stands
Record: 2-3, and the schedule has been cruel
507.2 points scored, 564.0 conceded. That points-against figure is the second-highest in the league - only the 0-5 WhoottieBoys have absorbed more. Marco has scored more than three teams sitting above him in the standings. He is not playing badly; he has been drawing the hot hand almost every week. Winning today puts him at 3-3 and back inside the six-team playoff cut.
No byes and no holes in the lineup
The four teams off this week are the Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals. Marco does not own a single player on any of them. Every slot is filled with somebody who is scheduled to play.
LordHaveMRSA 0.00, vargy 21.00. That scoreline looks alarming and is almost meaningless. vargy banked all 21 of those points Thursday night in Denver's 17-14 win over Seattle, from RJ Harvey (Denver Broncos, 14.60) and Jaylen Waddle (Denver Broncos, 6.40). He has five starters left; Marco has all seven.
Added up on consensus projections, Marco's current lineup comes to roughly 113 points and vargy finishes around 96. Marco is the favorite here by about 17 points, and by 22 if he makes the change in section 3. This game is his to lose, not his to chase.
2. Today's lineup, slot by slot
| Slot | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye (New England Patriots) | 1:00 PM vs New York Jets - proj 20.7, averaging 18.8. Start, no question. |
| RB | Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) | 4:05 PM vs Arizona Cardinals - proj 21.0, averaging 21.9. The most reliable player on the roster. |
| RB | Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) | 1:00 PM vs New Orleans Saints - proj 13.3, averaging 10.3. Lead back in a crowded room, but he is the room's best. |
| WR | Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) | 4:25 PM at Las Vegas Raiders - proj 8.1, averaging 9.9. THE WEAK LINK. See section 3. |
| WR | Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) | 4:05 PM vs Arizona Cardinals - proj 22.6, averaging 15.6. Highest-projected player in the lineup. |
| TE | Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) | 4:05 PM at Los Angeles Rams - proj 16.5, averaging 18.2. Elite, and he has a plus matchup. |
| FLEX | Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) | 4:25 PM vs Los Angeles Chargers - proj 10.6, but averaging only 6.7. Thin ice; see below. |
Projections below are full-PPR consensus for Week 6; the per-game average is this player's actual production through five games. Kickoff times are US Eastern. Sleeper locks each slot at that player's kickoff, not at 1:00 PM, so the 4:25 PM decisions can wait.
3. The one change to make today
Start DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) over Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) - if Moore is active
This is worth about 5 projected points and it is the only real decision on the board. DJ Moore is questionable with an AC joint sprain in his shoulder, missed last week's win over the Los Angeles Rams, and was a limited participant in Friday's practice. Buffalo's head coach said of the questionable group that if they are ready to go, they will play. Moore projects 13.3; Keon Coleman projects 8.09 and is listed third on Buffalo's receiver depth chart behind Moore and Khalil Shakir. If Moore plays, Coleman's role shrinks further - so the swap helps twice. The inactive list for Buffalo at Las Vegas posts 90 minutes before the 4:25 PM kickoff, which means roughly 2:55 PM US Eastern. Check then, and move Moore in if his name is not on it.
If DJ Moore sits: leave Keon Coleman in and accept it
With Moore out, Coleman becomes Buffalo's second or third target and his own projection climbs. The bench alternatives are Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, proj 9.1 but averaging only 7.7 a game) and Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders, proj 9.1, averaging 10.4). Tucker is the marginally better bet on recent form, but not by enough to be worth the churn. Hold Coleman.
Keon Coleman has been bad, and it already cost a bench point haul
Say it plainly: 49.4 points in five games, 9.9 a game, from a player occupying a starting receiver slot on a 2-3 team. Cooper Kupp (Seattle Seahawks) sat on the bench Thursday night and scored 10.00 - more than Coleman is projected for today, and those points are now permanently out of reach. Coleman has to clear 10 just to break even on that choice.
Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) is the next problem, not today's
33.3 points in five games - 6.7 a game - from a second-year receiver on the best passing offense he will ever play in. That is a genuine disappointment. The projection of 10.6 is driven by the Kansas City versus Los Angeles Chargers game total rather than by anything Worthy has actually done. Keep him in the FLEX today on upside, but if he turns in another dud, he is a bench player from Week 7 on.
4. Injuries and availability
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - Questionable, shoulder
The only genuine question on the roster. Covered in full above. Decision point: 2:55 PM US Eastern.
Everybody else is clean
No other player on this roster carries an injury designation. Drake Maye, Kyren Williams, Cam Skattebo, Puka Nacua, Trey McBride, Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, Chris Godwin, Tre Tucker, Najee Harris, Geno Smith and DeMario Douglas are all listed active. That is an unusually healthy Week 6 and it is the one thing going right.
Najee Harris (New York Giants) is dead weight with one excuse
11.2 points in five games - 2.2 a game - behind Cam Skattebo on the same team. The only argument for keeping him is that he is the handcuff: the backup running back on the same NFL team who would inherit the job if the starter got hurt, and Skattebo is a starting running back here. That argument is just barely good enough. If a genuinely useful player appears on waivers, Harris goes before DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots) does.
5. Waivers - $39 of FAAB left
| Player | Why | Bid |
|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal (Los Angeles Chargers) - RB | The one worthwhile add. Cleared 11.6 full-PPR points in each of his last two games and his workload has grown two weeks running behind Omarion Hampton. Real flex insurance for a roster whose third running back is Najee Harris. | $3-4 |
| Roschon Johnson (Chicago Bears) - RB | Second-most added running back in the league over the last 48 hours and a touchdown-dependent goal-line back. Speculative only. | $1 |
| Cade Otton (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - TE | Starting tight end, projects 7.3. Only relevant as a bye-week or injury hedge behind Trey McBride, which is not an urgent need. | $1 or pass |
| Rashid Shaheed (Seattle Seahawks) - WR | The best non-owned performer from Thursday night at 11.80 points. Seattle's number two receiver behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Worth a dollar as a receiver upgrade over DeMario Douglas. | $1-2 |
FAAB is the $100 season-long budget used to bid on waiver pickups. Marco has spent $61 of his and sits seventh in waiver order. The pool is picked clean: the four highest-projected free agents in this league are all quarterbacks - Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans), Daniel Jones (Indianapolis Colts), Bo Nix (Denver Broncos) and Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) - and with Drake Maye and Geno Smith already rostered, a quarterback is the last thing this team needs. Bid small or bid nothing.
6. Looking back at the last game played
Thursday, October 15: Denver Broncos 17, Seattle Seahawks 14. That is the only football played since the last report, and it was a slog - a 31-point combined game that produced almost nothing for fantasy.
Nobody had a monster game worth chasing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks) led all scorers at 25.40 and is already owned; the best free agent on the field was Rashid Shaheed (Seattle Seahawks) at 11.80. There is no waiver-wire fire to put out from Thursday night.
One correction worth making from the Thursday slate: Cooper Kupp (Seattle Seahawks) was benched for Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) and outscored him before Coleman has even taken a snap. Kupp is averaging 8.0 a game and Coleman 9.9, so that was a defensible call on paper - but it is the sort of coin flip that decides a 2-3 season, and it is the second week running that this receiver group has cost points.
7. What to actually do today
Before 2:55 PM US Eastern
Check Buffalo's inactive list. If DJ Moore is not on it, start him in the second receiver slot and bench Keon Coleman.
Before waivers process
Put in $3-4 on Kimani Vidal (Los Angeles Chargers). Drop DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots) to make room.
Then leave it alone
Drake Maye, Kyren Williams, Cam Skattebo, Puka Nacua and Trey McBride are all locked starts. Xavier Worthy stays in the FLEX today and goes on notice for Week 7. Marco is favored by roughly 17 points. The lineup is close to optimal; the job is not to outsmart it.