Drake Maye
39.46 pts
374 yards, four passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown. More than double his projection.
Marco leads the unbeaten league leader by 14.66 points with three starters still to play, and all five remaining players in this matchup are in the same game: Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills, 8:15 PM US Eastern tonight.
LordHaveMRSA
75.16
UndisputedGiant
60.50
Not decided. Monday Night Football settles it - Marco has 3 starters left (projected 49.9), UndisputedGiant has 2 (projected 37.5).
Puka Nacua
tonight
Projected 20.7. He is the single biggest swing in the matchup.
Cam Skattebo
7.10 pts
Fifty-nine yards on thirteen carries and a lost fumble. Missed his projection by 5.7.
Where the matchup stands
Marco is up 75.16 to 60.50 on UndisputedGiant, the only unbeaten team in the league at 4-0. Nothing is settled. Both teams were gutted by the same Monday night game, and that game is the whole ballgame tonight.
Marco still has Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams), Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) and Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) to play, projected at 49.9 points between them. UndisputedGiant still has Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) and Davante Adams (Los Angeles Rams), projected at 37.5. Run the projections out and it is roughly 125 to 98 in Marco's favor - a real lead, not a safe one.
The shape of the game matters more than usual because both sides are stacked in it. Las Vegas oddsmakers have the Los Angeles Rams favored by 3.5 with a total of 54.5 points, which is a high number - that points to a lot of scoring and helps everyone involved. If the Buffalo Bills get run off the field, Josh Allen's garbage-time passing is the thing that can erase Marco's cushion. If it stays a shootout, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams should close it out.
Record check, because it is not pretty: Marco is 1-3 and sits eleventh of twelve with 366.86 points for the season. This is the week he needs to stop the slide, and he has the better side of it.
Starters who played since the last report
Drake Maye (New England Patriots) - 39.46 points
The best quarterback day anyone in this league has had. Twenty-six of thirty-four for 374 yards and four passing touchdowns, plus seven carries for 25 yards and a rushing touchdown, in a 45-17 demolition of the Las Vegas Raiders. A 150.9 passer rating. He was projected for 19.2 and he more than doubled it. Marco single-handedly stayed in this matchup because of him.
Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) - 21.60 points
Nine catches on ten targets for 66 yards and a touchdown, against a projection of 18.1. Honest caveat: the Arizona Cardinals lost 45-21 to the Detroit Lions, and a team trailing by four scores throws constantly. That is game script - whether a team is ahead or behind, which drives how much it runs versus passes - and it inflated his volume. Still a quality tight end performance and he caught nine of his ten looks.
Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) - 7.10 points
Thirteen carries for 59 yards, two catches for 12 yards, and a fumble he lost - worth minus two points in this league. Projected 12.76, delivered 7.10. The New York Giants tied the Washington Commanders 27-27 and Skattebo was a non-factor in a game with plenty of offense to go around. A 4.5 yards-per-carry average is not the problem; eighty workload-adjusted nothing-yards and a turnover is.
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - 7.00 points, in the flex spot
Already covered Friday, but it needs restating because it is now a pattern: three targets. Three. He turned them into three catches for 37 yards and added a 3-yard run. With Baker Mayfield out on a dislocated thumb, Tampa Bay's passing game has no appetite for feeding him, and he came in projected for only 10.29 as it is. He is no longer a set-and-forget starter.
The bench, and whether it should have been the lineup
One bench player outscored a starter at the same position, and barely: Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders) put up 7.50 to Chris Godwin's 7.00 in the flex spot. Half a point. That is not a lineup mistake, it is two bad games stacked next to each other - Tucker had four catches for 41 yards and lost six yards on two carries.
Nothing else came close. Geno Smith (New York Jets) managed 9.98 against Drake Maye's 39.46, so the quarterback call was correct by thirty points. Tyrone Tracy (New York Giants) had 5.10 to Cam Skattebo's 7.10, so even the bad start was the right start.
The real finding is how empty the bench is. Cooper Kupp (Seattle Seahawks) caught two of three targets for 15 yards - 3.50 points, and that is twice now he has been invisible. Brian Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) took seven carries for 16 yards and caught nothing, 1.60 points, while Bijan Robinson handled 17 carries for 86 yards and seven targets in the same backfield. Brian Robinson is not a backup Marco should be protecting.
Injury and availability news on the roster
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - Questionable, sprained AC joint in the shoulder
He is on the bench and he should stay there. A shoulder problem for a wide receiver on a questionable tag, in a game where Marco already has a cleaner option on the same team, is not a risk worth taking.
Joshua Palmer (Buffalo Bills) ruled Out - and this is good news
Palmer is not on Marco's roster, but his absence is the most useful injury on the board. He is out, which clears targets in the Buffalo Bills offense for Keon Coleman, who Marco already has in the lineup tonight. The market noticed: Keon Coleman is the ninth-most-added player across Sleeper leagues in the last 48 hours.
Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) - bye week
Kansas City and Carolina are the two teams off this week, so Worthy was a zero by schedule, not by performance. Nothing to do. He is back next week.
Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) - both clear
Neither appears anywhere on the Los Angeles Rams injury report for tonight. Ronnie Rivers is on injured reserve with a calf problem, which thins the backfield behind Kyren Williams and is a quiet point in his favor.
The one start/sit call left before kickoff
| Slot | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye (New England Patriots) | Done - 39.46 |
| RB | Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) | Tonight - start |
| RB | Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) | Done - 7.10 |
| WR | Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) | Tonight - start |
| WR | Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) | Tonight - start |
| TE | Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) | Done - 21.60 |
| FLEX | Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Done - 7.00 |
There is exactly one decision still live, because every other player on the roster has already played. Lineups lock at kickoff, so Marco has until 8:15 PM US Eastern tonight.
The call: Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) versus DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) at wide receiver. Start Keon Coleman and do not think twice. Joshua Palmer being out hands Coleman the target share, and DJ Moore is questionable with a shoulder injury. Coleman is projected 10.27, DJ Moore 11.33, and that projection gap does not survive contact with the injury report.
Everything else is frozen. The flex spot with Chris Godwin is already scored, Drake Maye and Trey McBride have banked their points, and the rest of the bench played Thursday or Sunday.
Waiver targets - the monster game Marco does not own
| Player | Why | Bid |
|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots) | 22.5 points, two touchdowns, in the league's hottest offense. Highest ceiling available. | $14 |
| Germie Bernard (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Nine targets, six catches, 80 yards. Volume-based and repeatable with Roman Wilson out. | $7 |
| Samaje Perine (Cincinnati Bengals) | Fourteen carries, 68 yards and a receiving touchdown. Running back insurance behind a thin group. | $4 |
DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots) is the name: four catches on five targets for 65 yards and two touchdowns, 22.5 points in full-PPR scoring, against a projection of 6.64 - and he did it in the same 45-point New England explosion that Drake Maye quarterbacked, an offense Marco already has exposure to.
Be honest about what that game was, though. Two touchdowns on five targets is efficiency, not volume, and efficiency does not repeat. Kyle Williams (New England Patriots) put up 18.1 on three catches in the same game. The safer profile is Germie Bernard (Pittsburgh Steelers), who was targeted nine times for six catches and 80 yards with Roman Wilson out - that is a role, not a fluke.
The obvious drop is Brian Robinson (Atlanta Falcons). He is the third option in his own backfield and he scored 1.60 points. Marco's wide receiver room is the thinner problem, so trade a dead running back for a live receiver.
FAAB below is the $100 season-long budget used to bid on waiver pickups. Marco should not be precious with it at 1-3 in week 5.
Looking past tonight
Two things to fix regardless of how this matchup lands. First, the wide receiver corps is carried entirely by Puka Nacua - Chris Godwin has seen three targets, Cooper Kupp has gone quiet, DJ Moore is hurt and Xavier Worthy was on bye. That is one real asset and four question marks. Second, the running back room behind Kyren Williams is Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy and Brian Robinson, which combined for 13.8 points.
A 1-3 team eleventh in the standings cannot wait for the roster to fix itself. Spend the waiver budget, cut the dead weight, and win tonight.
Week 5 context and league standings
Week 5 scores so far: 148.98, 132.34, 131.52, 113.50, 95.66, 90.14, 82.80, 75.16 (LordHaveMRSA), 72.00, 61.00, 60.50 (UndisputedGiant), 54.08. Marco sits eighth of twelve with three starters still to play, so that ranking will move up tonight.
Byes this week: Kansas City Chiefs and Carolina Panthers.
Week 5 schedule: Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thursday, October 8), the full Sunday slate on October 11, and Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills tonight, Monday October 12 at 8:15 PM US Eastern.
Standings: 1. UndisputedGiant 4-0 · 2. Zynning 3-1 · 3. Free Jacobs 3-1 · 4. Heisenberg 3-1 · 5. Gridiron Guru 23 2-2 · 6. vargy 2-2 · 7. chaseelson30 2-2 · 8. markc1281 2-2 · 9. honeybadgerr1 1-3 · 10. The Daddies 1-3 · 11. LordHaveMRSA 1-3 · 12. WhoottieBoys 0-4.
Other big unowned performances Sunday: Jameis Winston (New York Giants) 27.7, Tyler Huntley (Baltimore Ravens) 24.0, Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers) 22.0, Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers) 21.5 on two touchdowns. Marco does not need a quarterback or a tight end, which is why none of them lead the waiver list.
Jargon, spelled out: full PPR - one point per reception. FAAB - the $100 season-long budget for bidding on waiver pickups. Game script - whether a team is ahead or behind, which drives how much it runs versus passes. Target - a pass thrown in a receiver's direction, caught or not. Bye week - the one week each NFL team does not play.