CeeDee Lamb
2.90 pts
Projected 20.71. Two catches, nine yards, on five targets. The single best thing that happened to you Thursday.
CeeDee Lamb played Thursday night on a bad quad and did nothing with it, and that one dud has quietly turned your week around. You went into Week 5 projected to lose by three to the only undefeated team in the league. You are now projected to win by eleven.
LordHaveMRSA (1-3)
7.00
UndisputedGiant (4-0)
2.90
One starter apiece is finished. Thirteen still to play, Sunday through Monday night.
Chris Godwin
7.00 pts
Three catches on three targets for 37 yards. Projected 10.29. Quiet, and the target share is the worry.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Top waiver add
Unowned in a 12-team league while your starting running back nurses a shoulder. Bid $5.
1. Where the matchup stands
| LordHaveMRSA | UndisputedGiant | |
|---|---|---|
| Banked so far | 7.00 | 2.90 |
| Still to play (projected) | 98.53 | 90.99 |
| Projected final | 105.53 | 93.89 |
| Record | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Points scored, season | 366.86 | 548.36 |
You lead UndisputedGiant 7.00 to 2.90. That is a nothing-burger of a lead on raw points, but the shape of it matters: both of you had exactly one starter in Thursday night's Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over the Dallas Cowboys, and theirs was the better player who had the far worse night.
Going into the week, consensus projections had this as 111.70 for them against 108.82 for you - a coin flip you were slightly losing. CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys) was projected for 20.71 points and delivered 2.90. Your Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) was projected for 10.29 and delivered 7.00. You gave back 3.29 points to expectation; they gave back 17.81. Run the rest of both lineups at projection and you now win 105.53 to 93.89.
Worth saying out loud: this is the 4-0 team, the one with 548.36 points scored, nearly 182 more than you. You have no business being favored here, and Thursday handed you the opening anyway. Do not waste it with a lineup mistake.
2. Your starter who has played
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - 7.00 points, in your FLEX
Three catches on three targets for 37 yards, plus one carry for 3 yards. He caught everything thrown at him, which is the only kind thing to say about it. Three targets is the problem. Emeka Egbuka (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) drew nine, Cade Otton (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Kenny Gainwell (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) four apiece, and Tez Johnson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) turned his one look into a 64-yard gain. With Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) out with a thumb injury and Jalon Daniels (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) under center, the ball went to Egbuka and to Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), who ran for 165 yards and two total touchdowns. Godwin was a bystander in a game his team won. Not a disaster - 7.00 points from a flex spot is survivable - but he is drifting toward the back of that passing game and you should stop assuming he is a double-digit lock.
3. Bench versus starters
No bench player outscored a starter at the same position, because only Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) has played. Nothing to second-guess yet. Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) is on bye this week along with the rest of Kansas City and Carolina, and he is correctly on your bench.
Now the uncomfortable number. Through four weeks you have scored 366.86 points. Your optimal lineups would have scored 450.16. That is 83.30 points left on the bench, better than 20 per week, and it is the single biggest reason you are 1-3 instead of 3-1. Week 4 is the case study: you won 95.36 to 79.50, but you started Geno Smith (New York Jets) for 8.76 while Drake Maye (New England Patriots) put up 27.16 on your bench, and you started Jauan Jennings (Minnesota Vikings) for 1.80 while Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) put up 23.60 on your bench. Brian Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) added 25.70 from the bench on top of that. Your optimal Week 4 was roughly 150 points.
Credit where it is due: you fixed both of those this week. Drake Maye is starting over Geno Smith, Keon Coleman is in the lineup, and Jauan Jennings is gone. Keep doing that.
4. Injuries and practice news on your roster
Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) - Questionable, shoulder - this is the one that matters
Limited in practice both Wednesday and Thursday, his second straight limited session. He has not carried an injury designation into a game yet this season and reportedly wants to keep that streak alive, so a full practice Friday would be the green light. Friday's session has not happened as of this report - his official game status lands later today. He plays at the Washington Commanders Sunday at 1:00 PM Eastern, projected for 12.71 points. Check his designation before kickoff; if he is ruled out or downgraded to doubtful you are starting a running back you do not currently have, which is exactly the problem in section 6.
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - Doubtful, shoulder - already handled
Aggravated an AC joint shoulder injury in Buffalo's Week 4 game against the New England Patriots and is now doubtful. Plan on him being out. He is on your bench, so this costs you nothing directly - and it actively helps you, because it is the reason Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) is startable. Buffalo plays at the Los Angeles Rams Monday at 8:15 PM Eastern.
Everyone else is clean
Drake Maye (New England Patriots), Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams), Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills), Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams), Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) and Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) carry no injury designation. Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) is on bye.
5. Your lineup before Sunday's 1:00 PM Eastern kickoffs
| Slot | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye (New England Patriots) | Start. Sun 1:00 PM ET vs Las Vegas Raiders. Projected 19.32, and New England is a 3.5-point home favorite. A clear QB1. |
| RB | Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) | Start. Mon 8:15 PM ET vs Buffalo Bills. Projected 18.71. Coming off 36.70 in Week 4. |
| RB | Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) | Start, pending his Friday injury designation. Sun 1:00 PM ET at Washington Commanders. Projected 12.71. |
| WR | Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) | Start. Mon 8:15 PM ET vs Buffalo Bills. Projected 20.61, your highest-projected player. |
| WR | Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) | Start. Mon 8:15 PM ET at Los Angeles Rams. Projected 9.15, but that number is stale - it predates DJ Moore being ruled doubtful. Coming off 6 catches, 116 yards and a touchdown in Week 4. Boom or bust, and you want the boom. |
| TE | Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) | Start. Sun 4:25 PM ET vs Detroit Lions. Projected 18.03 on a projected 7.48 catches. A must-start tight end. |
| FLEX | Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Done. 7.00 points. |
| Bench | Geno Smith (New York Jets) | Sit. Projected 13.95, six under Drake Maye. You already learned this lesson in Week 4. |
| Bench | Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders) | Sit. Projected 8.09. Closest thing to a flex alternative, but not close enough to move Godwin's replacement decision if Skattebo sits. |
| Bench | Cooper Kupp (Seattle Seahawks) | Sit. Projected 6.35. Scored 2.30 in Week 4. He is not the player you drafted. |
| Bench | Brian Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) | Sit - unless Cam Skattebo is ruled out, in which case he is your only real option. Sun 8:20 PM ET vs Baltimore Ravens. Projected 5.25, though he did go for 25.70 in Week 4. |
| Bench | DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) | Sit. Doubtful, shoulder. |
| Bench | Xavier Hutchinson (Houston Texans) | Sit. Projected 2.63. Your most droppable player. |
| Bench | Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) | Bye week. Hold. |
No changes recommended. This is the right seven. The only live question is Cam Skattebo (New York Giants), and that is a health question, not a strategy question.
One structural note on timing: three of your starters - Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams), Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) and Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) - all play in Monday night's Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams game, worth about 48 projected points. So does your opponent's Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) and Davante Adams (Los Angeles Rams), worth about 38. This matchup will very likely still be undecided Monday evening, and that single game decides it. Nothing to do about that, but do not panic Sunday night if the scoreboard looks ugly.
6. Waivers - and your real roster problem
| Player | Why | Bid |
|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (New York Giants), Running Back | The move to make. He is Cam Skattebo's direct backup - the handcuff, meaning the player who inherits the job if the starter goes down - and he is sitting unowned in a 12-team league while Skattebo practices limited with a shoulder injury. He is a contingency, not a starter: projected 0.92 this week if Skattebo plays. That is exactly why he is cheap. Drop Xavier Hutchinson (Houston Texans) for him. | $5 |
| Oronde Gadsden II (Los Angeles Chargers), Tight End | Free agent, and the highest-ranked unowned skill player in your league at a position where you are one deep. If Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) ever tweaks something you have literally nobody. Pure insurance, low priority behind Tracy. | $3 |
| Tyler Higbee (Los Angeles Rams), Tight End | Cheaper version of the same idea, with a live Week 5 path if Colby Parkinson (Los Angeles Rams) sits, in what should be a high-scoring game against Buffalo. Only if you would rather spend $1 than $3. | $1 |
| Jalon Daniels (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Quarterback | Listed for completeness. He is the Tampa Bay starter while Baker Mayfield's thumb heals and he played well Thursday. You have Drake Maye and Geno Smith. Skip it. | Pass |
You have $53 left of your $100 FAAB budget - FAAB being the season-long auction budget you bid from to claim waiver players. You have used $47 and made no completed roster moves logged this season, which means that money went somewhere early and has not bought you much.
Here is the thing to actually act on. Your roster is 8 wide receivers, 3 running backs, 2 quarterbacks and 1 tight end. In a lineup that demands two running backs every week, three is not depth, it is a dare - and one of the three is Questionable with a shoulder right now. If Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) misses Sunday, your second running back is Brian Robinson (Atlanta Falcons), projected 5.25. You are one injury from starting a wide receiver in a running back slot.
Honest answer on the monster-game question: nobody worth chasing came free out of Thursday night. The two players who went off - Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), 165 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and George Pickens (Dallas Cowboys), 9 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown - are both already rostered in your league. The only interesting free agent from that game is Jalon Daniels (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), who went 19 of 25 for 189 yards and a touchdown in his first start with Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) out, and you do not need a third quarterback.
7. The week at a glance
Byes this week: Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs. The only player it touches on your roster is Xavier Worthy, already benched.
Your Sunday starts quiet - Drake Maye at 1:00 PM Eastern and Cam Skattebo at 1:00 PM Eastern, then Trey McBride at 4:25 PM Eastern - and then almost everything rides on Monday night. Set it and leave it alone.
Thursday night box score detail - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jalon Daniels, in his first start with Baker Mayfield out (thumb), completed 19 of 25 for 189 yards and a touchdown, no interceptions, and added 23 yards on 7 carries. Bucky Irving carried 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown with a 72-yard long, and caught 2 passes for 10 yards and a second touchdown. Emeka Egbuka led the team with 9 targets, catching 6 for 38 yards, and ran in a 14-yard touchdown. Tez Johnson caught his only target for 64 yards. Cade Otton caught 3 of 4 for 25 yards. Chris Godwin caught 3 of 3 for 37 yards.
Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott completed 24 of 42 for 316 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. George Pickens was the offense: 9 catches on 13 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Flournoy added 3 catches for 90 yards. Javonte Williams ran 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown. CeeDee Lamb, listed Questionable with a quadriceps injury before the game, played and caught 2 of 5 targets for 9 yards.