Puka Nacua
19.14 proj
He plays - that part is settled. The new question is how much. Saturday reporting says a stricter snap count than usual at Philadelphia.
Game day. Your opponent starts scoring at 9:30 AM Eastern, six of your seven starters kick off at 1:00 PM, and the only decision still in your hands closes in under five hours.
LordHaveMRSA
0.00
The Daddies
0.00
Nothing played yet. Projected 104.12 to 113.61 - you are a nine-and-a-half point underdog with the entire matchup still live.
Geno Smith
14.78 proj
Yesterday this was a coin flip against Drake Maye. The weather broke the tie: Soldier Field is calm, Buffalo is gusting to 24 mph.
Jauan Jennings
10.77 proj
Nobody in your league owns him. Justin Jefferson is ruled out. He projects above Xavier Worthy and does not kick off until 4:05 PM.
Where the matchup stands
Both teams on 0.00 - but The Daddies are on the board before you are
Their tight end Tyler Warren (Indianapolis Colts) plays the 9:30 AM Eastern game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London against the Washington Commanders, projected for 12.56. You do not have a single player on a field until 1:00 PM. Expect to be staring at something like a 12-to-nothing hole mid-morning. That is the schedule, not the matchup - do not read anything into it.
Projected 104.12 to 113.61 - a nine-and-a-half point underdog
The Daddies are 1-2 with 294.60 points. Their lineup: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs, 21.22 projected), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks, 22.60), Jeremiyah Love (Arizona Cardinals, 15.90), Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles, 14.67), Malik Nabers (New York Giants, 13.87), Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings, 12.79) and Tyler Warren (Indianapolis Colts, 12.56). Their one soft spot is Jordan Addison, and even that just got firmer - Justin Jefferson is ruled out, so Addison is now the Vikings' number one receiver against a Miami Dolphins team they are favored over by ten in a dome.
0-3 with the league's worst luck and a bad roster - both are true
You have had 371.02 points scored against you, the most in this twelve-team league by fifteen points. Nobody has been handed a harder schedule. But you have also scored 271.50, which is eleventh of twelve. Your potential points - the most you could have scored with perfect lineup calls - is 288.20, so across three weeks you have left only 16.70 on the bench. Your lineup management is fine. The roster is the problem.
Four of the fourteen relevant players in this matchup are in the Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants game alone: your Trey McBride and Cam Skattebo against their Jeremiyah Love and Malik Nabers. Two more are in Rams at Eagles - your Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua against their Saquon Barkley. By about 4:00 PM Eastern this thing is effectively decided.
Your Sunday lineup, hour by hour
| Slot | Player and kickoff | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Geno Smith (New York Jets) - 14.78 proj - Sun 1:00 PM ET at Chicago Bears | Start. See the decision section - the weather settles it. |
| RB | Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) - 15.39 proj - Sun 1:00 PM ET vs Arizona Cardinals | Start. Fifty carries in three games. The Giants want to run and shorten games, and volume like that does not need a good matchup. |
| RB | Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) - 13.61 proj - Sun 1:00 PM ET at Philadelphia Eagles | Start. Averaging 5.6 yards a carry with eleven catches on twelve targets. Your only alternative projects 4.26. |
| WR | Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) - 19.14 proj - Sun 1:00 PM ET at Philadelphia Eagles | Start, and check the 11:30 AM ET inactives anyway. Highest projection on your roster and your biggest unknown. |
| WR | Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) - 9.69 proj - Sun 4:25 PM ET at Las Vegas Raiders | Start only if you cannot get Jauan Jennings. Your weakest starter by a mile - 22.30 points in three games. |
| TE | Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) - 17.49 proj - Sun 1:00 PM ET at New York Giants | Start. The best thing on your roster: 26 catches on 34 targets, never fewer than eight receptions or ten targets in a game. |
| FLEX | DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - 14.02 proj - Sun 1:00 PM ET vs New England Patriots | Start. Ten targets in Week 3 playing through the same shoulder. The wind is a mild concern, not a reason to sit him. |
Bench, for reference: Drake Maye (New England Patriots, 17.90), Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8.90), Cooper Kupp (Seattle Seahawks, 6.36), Xavier Hutchinson (Houston Texans, 5.67), Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills, 4.84), Brian Robinson (Atlanta Falcons, 4.26, Monday night at the New Orleans Saints) and Konata Mumpfield (Los Angeles Rams, 1.59).
The one decision left, and the clock on it
Geno Smith or Drake Maye - the weather breaks yesterday's tie. Hold Geno Smith.
Sleeper still projects Drake Maye (New England Patriots) at 17.90 against Geno Smith's 14.78, and swapping would cut your projected deficit from 9.49 to 6.37. Here is what yesterday's report did not have: Highmark Stadium in Buffalo will be running 14 to 16 mph winds with gusts of 22 to 24 mph at 1:00 PM Eastern, while Soldier Field in Chicago is 67 degrees, dry, and gusting only to 15. Maye's projection is built almost entirely on garbage-time volume as a seven-point road underdog, and gusts over 20 mph are exactly what strips a passing game of its deep throws. Add that Maye has given you 27.60 points in three games - a 9.20 average, and 5.76 of it last week - while Geno Smith has 50.90 on a 75.5 percent completion rate with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Start Geno Smith. The projection gap is smaller than the gap in how these two are actually playing.
Xavier Worthy is the slot you should actually be trying to fix before 4:25 PM
Worthy has 22.30 points in three games on fifteen targets, and he saw zero red-zone targets in Week 3 while putting up 4.00. He is the second receiver in Kansas City behind a healthy Travis Kelce target share and he is boom-or-bust every week. If Jauan Jennings (Minnesota Vikings) is sitting in free agency rather than on waivers in your league - check it, it takes ten seconds - add him and start him over Worthy. Jennings projects 10.77 to Worthy's 9.69, and with Justin Jefferson ruled out he is the Vikings' clear number two behind Jordan Addison against Miami. His 4:05 PM kickoff is twenty minutes before Worthy's, so you have to decide by 4:00 PM.
Konata Mumpfield is now worth 1.59 and he is your cut
He was useful for exactly two weeks as the man filling in while Puka Nacua was hurt. Nacua is back, so Mumpfield projects 1.59 and is the third receiver on his own team behind Davante Adams. He is the roster spot you use on a running back. You carry eight wide receivers, three running backs and two quarterbacks in a lineup that starts two running backs plus a flex - that is backwards, and behind Kyren Williams and Cam Skattebo there is nothing but Brian Robinson at 4.26.
Injuries on your roster
Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) - groin - he plays, on a snap count
This is the one thing that genuinely changed since yesterday. Head coach Sean McVay called him good to go and he will be active. But Tom Pelissero reported Saturday that the Rams may hold him to a stricter snap count than usual, and the team has said it will watch his conditioning in-game. Other outlets are reporting the Rams will not limit him at all, so the reporting is in open disagreement. Treat the 19.14 projection as the optimistic end. In his one appearance this season, Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne, he played 70 percent of the snaps and caught five of nine targets for 74 yards - about 12.40 points. That is a more realistic expectation than 19. Start him regardless; even a capped Nacua beats Chris Godwin at 8.90. If he somehow lands on the inactive list at 11:30 AM Eastern, Konata Mumpfield is the one-button replacement.
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - shoulder - start him, but know about the wind
Limited in practice all week with the shoulder he hurt in Week 2 against the Detroit Lions, and he played straight through it last Sunday for a team-high 23 routes and 10 targets from Josh Allen. He will play. The complication is the 22-to-24 mph gusts at Highmark Stadium, which tend to compress a passing game into short throws - not the worst outcome for a receiver who works underneath, but it caps the ceiling. No action needed.
Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) - cleared - stays benched
He did not practice Wednesday, got two limited sessions Thursday and Friday, and is ready for the divisional game. He has eight catches on nine targets for 101 yards this season, which is efficient and also tiny. Projects 4.84. Leave him.
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - ankle - cleared, still benched
No on-field work Wednesday, full practice by the end of the week. He will play against the Green Bay Packers at 1:00 PM Eastern. He projects 8.90, behind four receivers you prefer, in a game with the lowest point total on the board at 38.5. He and Cooper Kupp are your cut candidates the moment a usable running back appears.
Waivers - you have $59 of your $100 FAAB left
| Player | Why | Bid |
|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings (Minnesota Vikings) | The top claim, and the only one that can help you today. Justin Jefferson is officially ruled out with an ankle sprain - his first missed game since 2023 - and Jennings is the direct beneficiary behind Jordan Addison against the Miami Dolphins at 4:05 PM Eastern. Projects 10.77, which beats your starting receiver Xavier Worthy. Unowned in your league. If he is a free agent rather than on waivers, add him now and start him. | $8 |
| Isaiah Davis (New York Jets) | Your actual need. Running back depth - behind Kyren Williams and Cam Skattebo you have nothing. Projects 7.72 and free. In a lineup that starts two running backs and a flex, a third real back is worth more to you than a fourth receiver you will never start. | $4 |
| Daniel Jones (Indianapolis Colts) | Read this one as a warning, not a claim. He projects 16.60 this week - higher than Geno Smith at 14.78 and higher than Drake Maye at 17.90 is likely to deliver. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) is also sitting free at 14.27. You are carrying two quarterbacks you do not trust while better ones go unowned. Drop one of them and stop wasting a bench spot. | $1 |
FAAB is the hundred-dollar season-long budget you bid with on waiver pickups. You have spent $41 of it and have zero wins to show for it, and you sit ninth of twelve in waiver order. Waivers in this league run Wednesday, so a claim will not process before today's games - which is exactly why it matters whether Jauan Jennings is on waivers or already a free agent. Free agents can be added instantly; waiver claims cannot.
One correction to yesterday's report: it led the waiver section with Roman Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers) at $8 off his Thursday night touchdown. His Week 4 projection is 5.17 and his game is already played. Jauan Jennings is the better claim now that Justin Jefferson is confirmed out, and Jennings can actually score for you this afternoon. Roman Wilson is still worth a dollar or two as a Week 5 flier, not your top bid.
One you do not own
Jauan Jennings (Minnesota Vikings) - the free agent who should be in your lineup by 4:00 PM
No games were played overnight, so there is no monster performance to point at - the Thursday night Cleveland Browns 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 24 was the only Week 4 game in the books and neither roster in this matchup had a player in it. The equivalent today is an opportunity rather than a box score: Justin Jefferson is ruled out, the Minnesota Vikings are ten-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium, and the man who slides into that vacated target share is unowned in a twelve-team league. He projects 10.77 and your starting receiver projects 9.69. You are a 0-3 team projected to lose by nine and a half. This is a free swing at a better lineup and it costs you a receiver you were never going to start.
Everything else on your roster is active and playing. Nobody is on a bye this week - all thirty-two teams are in action in Week 4.
Your checklist before 1:00 PM Eastern
1. Check whether Jauan Jennings (Minnesota Vikings) is a free agent or on waivers. If free, add him over Konata Mumpfield (Los Angeles Rams) and slot him in for Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) before 4:00 PM.
2. Leave Geno Smith (New York Jets) at quarterback. Do not chase Drake Maye's projection into a 24 mph crosswind.
3. Check the 11:30 AM Eastern inactive list for Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams). He is expected to be active; if he is not, Konata Mumpfield replaces him directly.
4. Everything else is set. Note that bench players lock in this league once their game kicks off, so a move you have not made by 1:00 PM is a move you cannot make.