Puka Nacua
19.2 projected
Back from a hip and groin injury that cost him two full games. Head coach Sean McVay expects him to play at Philadelphia.
Week 4 is open and your scoreboard is still blank - neither you nor The Daddies had a single player in last night's Browns-Steelers game, so nothing has been decided. Everything that matters happens Sunday, and the one call worth agonizing over is at quarterback.
LordHaveMRSA
0.00
The Daddies
0.00
Nothing played. First kickoff that touches either lineup is Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM Eastern.
Geno Smith
26.0 last week
321 yards and three touchdowns at Detroit. He is your starter over Drake Maye, and it is closer than it should be.
Roman Wilson
16.4 points
Three catches, 74 yards and a 49-yard touchdown last night. Nobody in your league owns him.
Where the matchup stands
You are 0-3 and eleventh of twelve. That is the bad news. The slightly less bad news is that the record is lying about how you have played: 371.02 points have been scored against you, the most in the league by a 15-point margin over the next-worst team. Nobody in this league has run into a hotter opponent three weeks running.
But do not let that become a comfort blanket, because your own 271.50 points scored is also eleventh of twelve. You have been both unlucky and bad. Your potential points - what you would have scored with a perfect lineup every week - is 288.20, so poor start/sit calls have cost you only about 17 points across three weeks. The lineup management is fine. The roster is the problem.
This week you draw The Daddies, 1-2, 294.60 points scored. Consensus projections have their starting seven at roughly 111 points against your roughly 104. You are a seven-point underdog on paper, for the fourth straight week. All 32 teams play in Week 4, so there are no bye weeks to work around.
Last night in the books
Cleveland Browns 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 24 - zero impact on your matchup
Neither you nor The Daddies started a single player in it, so the scoreboard above is honestly 0-0. For the record: Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) went 24 of 33 for 268 yards and a touchdown, Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns) ran it in and caught six passes, and Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers) threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns but gave away two interceptions.
The one name you should care about: Roman Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Three catches for 74 yards and a 49-yard touchdown on six targets - 16.4 points in this league's full-PPR scoring, where every catch is worth a point. More telling than the box score: Michael Pittman Jr. (Pittsburgh Steelers) saw only four targets to Wilson's six. He is a free agent in your league and the most-added receiver of the last 48 hours. Details in the waiver table below.
Correcting the record on Week 3
You lost 88.36 to 133.84 to Free Jacobs, your worst output of the season, and two starters did it to you. Drake Maye (New England Patriots) scored 5.76 - a quarterback floor so low it is hard to get there on purpose - and Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) managed 4.0. Xavier Hutchinson (Houston Texans) scored 8.5 on your bench, double Worthy's number. That is a wide receiver you could have swapped, but 4.5 points would not have touched a 45-point loss.
Your Week 4 lineup as it sits
| Slot | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Geno Smith (New York Jets) | Start. At Chicago, Sunday 1:00 PM. 14.5 projected. |
| RB | Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) | Start. At Philadelphia, Sunday 1:00 PM. 13.6 projected. |
| RB | Cam Skattebo (New York Giants) | Start. Hosting Arizona, Sunday 1:00 PM. 15.4 projected. |
| WR | Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) | Start if he practices Friday. 19.2 projected - your highest. |
| WR | Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) | Start, reluctantly. At Las Vegas, Sunday 4:25 PM. 9.7 projected. |
| TE | Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) | Start, no thought required. 17.4 projected. |
| FLEX | DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) | Start. Hosting New England, Sunday 1:00 PM. 13.9 projected. |
The real decision: Geno Smith or Drake Maye
Verdict: stay with Geno Smith (New York Jets)
This is the closest call on your board and the projections actually disagree with me - they have Drake Maye (New England Patriots) at 18.2 and Geno Smith at 14.5. I am overruling them on form and on spot. Smith has gone 9.3, then 15.6, then 26.0, arrow pointing straight up, and he threw for 321 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions at Detroit. Maye has gone the other way: 12.8, then 9.0, then 5.76, and he is carrying a right shoulder injury into a road game at Buffalo, which is about the worst place in the league to go looking for a bounce-back.
Why the matchup also favors Smith
Chicago blitzes on 40.8 percent of snaps and plays single-high coverage on 65.7 percent of plays. Smith has averaged 10.3 yards per attempt against the blitz this season and has historically carved up exactly that single-high look. The Bears also rank 24th in yards allowed per attempt and 29th in yards per completion, which is the profile of a defense that gets you some pressure but gives up chunks when it does not. The Jets are 3.5-point underdogs with a 20-point implied total, so he will be throwing in the second half either way - that is game script, meaning the score dictates whether a team runs or passes.
The honest risk
If Maye goes for 22 and Smith goes for 12, this is the decision that loses you a fourth straight game, and I will own that. Smith's two bad weeks were both low-volume, efficient games where the Jets controlled the clock. If you want the safer floor, Maye is defensible. I would not make the switch.
Injuries on your roster
Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams) - Questionable, hip and groin - play him
He has missed the last two games, which is where the two 0.0 scores on his line come from. He was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice and Sean McVay said he had a good workout Sunday and a good walkthrough, and expects him to play against Philadelphia. Keep him in the lineup, but check the Friday practice report before you close the laptop Saturday night. If he is downgraded, Cooper Kupp (Seattle Seahawks) is the replacement, not Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills) - Questionable, shoulder - play him
Limited in Wednesday's practice with a shoulder, but he was limited last week too and still played and scored 12.7. He has the widest range on your roster: 21.0 in Week 1, then minus 0.1 in Week 2, then 12.7. Buffalo is hosting New England and should be ahead, which is not ideal for pass volume, but 13.9 projected is still your second-best wide receiver number.
Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) - Questionable, ankle - irrelevant either way
Limited in practice with an ankle. He projects 4.8 points and scored 4.7 in Week 3. He is not starting for you whether he plays or not, and he is a drop candidate - see the bench section.
Nobody else is dinged
Kyren Williams, Cam Skattebo, Trey McBride, Xavier Worthy, Geno Smith, Drake Maye, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Brian Robinson, Xavier Hutchinson and Konata Mumpfield all carry no injury designation. That is the cleanest health report you have had all season.
Waiver targets - you have $59 of FAAB left
| Player | Why | Bid |
|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings (Minnesota Vikings) | Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) is dealing with an ankle injury and Jennings is the direct beneficiary. Highest-projected free agent wide receiver in your league at 9.1, and he plays Sunday at 4:05 PM against Miami. Your best immediate upgrade over Xavier Worthy if Worthy lays another egg. | $8 |
| Isaiah Davis (New York Jets) | Breece Hall (New York Jets) is slowed by a thigh injury. Braelon Allen is already gone in your league, which makes Davis the next man in a backfield about to get work. Highest-projected free agent running back at 7.8, and you only carry three running backs. This is the add that fixes a real hole. | $6 |
| Roman Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Last night's 16.4-point game and the most-added receiver in football over 48 hours. Honest caveat: projections still have him at only 5.2 going forward, so this is a bet on the target share continuing, not a plug-and-play starter. Cheap speculative claim. | $3 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars) | A genuine buy-low. He has 7.0, 7.0 and 1.8 on the season and the national columns are telling people to drop him over a drops problem. He is also the most talented receiver sitting in your free agent pool by a distance. Stash-only, and only if you clear bench space. | $1 |
FAAB is the $100 season-long budget you bid with on free agents. You have spent $41 and have $59 left, which is slightly above the league median, and your waiver priority is 10th of 12 - so bidding is how you win a claim, not waiting your turn. Be warned: this is a thin week. Every headline name the national waiver columns are pushing - Braelon Allen (New York Jets), Ollie Gordon II (Miami Dolphins), Jaylen Wright (Miami Dolphins), Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints), Keenan Allen (Indianapolis Colts), Darren Waller (Carolina Panthers) - is already owned in this 12-team league. What follows is what is actually free.
Bench cleanup - you are carrying dead weight
You roster seven wide receivers and three running backs. That is backwards. Four of those receivers project under 9 points this week and none of them will ever start for you in a healthy week.
Drop candidates, worst first: Konata Mumpfield (Los Angeles Rams) projects 1.59 points and has not scored for you all season - he is a roster spot, not a player. Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) projects 4.8 with an ankle problem and is the third receiver on his own team behind DJ Moore. Xavier Hutchinson (Houston Texans) projects 5.7. Cooper Kupp (Seattle Seahawks) is the one to think twice about: he scored 14.6 in Week 3 but projects only 6.3 this week, and he is your insurance if Puka Nacua is downgraded Friday - hold him through Sunday at least.
Cut Konata Mumpfield for Isaiah Davis and Keon Coleman for Jauan Jennings and you have fixed your running back depth and upgraded your fourth receiver in one move, for about $14 of a $59 budget. At 0-3 there is no reason to be precious about a bench that has produced nothing.
What to watch before Sunday
Friday afternoon: the final injury reports land. Puka Nacua's designation is the single most important line on your roster - if he is out, your lineup loses its top projection and you are starting Cooper Kupp against the Los Angeles Chargers instead.
Saturday: waiver claims process in most leagues. Get the Jauan Jennings and Isaiah Davis bids in before you forget.
Sunday 1:00 PM Eastern: five of your seven starters kick off at once - Geno Smith, Kyren Williams, Cam Skattebo, Puka Nacua and DJ Moore. You will know by roughly 4:00 PM whether this week is salvageable, with only Xavier Worthy at 4:25 PM left to come.